## Summary - reverse the event tree - 'explain' the causes - “Events and processes 'concatenate', or come together in time and space” (Currey, 1984, p. 187) - the interactivity of events critical to the production of famine - especially where conditional probabilities are unknown - models the multi-dimensionality of the many branches (or roots) of a crisis - enable a causal understanding of concatenation of processes > process in which the complex inter-relationships (from grain shipments to kinship links or from political ties to administrative chains of command) become strained and eventually rupture at a similar point or points in time and space. @currey_1984 ## Description ### @currey_1984 “Sen's 'entitlement approach' does not, however, 'explain' the causes of famine.” (Currey, 1984, p. 186) “Events and processes 'concatenate', or come together in time and space” (Currey, 1984, p. 187) “Geographers could, however, usefully reverse the event trees, considering instead various "routes through the roots" or concatenations (Fig 4) as a basis for food crisis management training” (Currey, 1984, p. 187) “These are templates for training not prediction: they seek to increase "intelligent apprehension" rather than "a too mechanical obedience to rule"” (Currey, 1984, p. 187) “Both the total number of events and the individual events, which together constitute the set of critical events predisposing communities to famine, are unknown because information on past famines in different settings is limited.” (Currey, 1984, p. 187) “Many of the critical events contributing to the probability of famine are interactive.” (Currey, 1984, p. 188) “There are conditional probabilities among critical events which are poorly understood,” (Currey, 1984, p. 188) “The cross impact matrices (Rochberg et al. 1970) necessary to develop these intricate scenarios are again only likely to be useful for training purposes.” (Currey, 1984, p. 188) “The nuances of each particular crisis are likely to be obscured or lost for predictive purposes however many branches or 'roots' in various dimensions are modelled in any concatenation process” (Currey, 1984, p. 188) “The food crisis manager has however to learn from past mistakes and interpret them within the context and structures of the present” (Currey, 1984, p. 189) “Concatenation models illustrate the need to avoid monitoring only a limited number of parameters.” (Currey, 1984, p. 189) “The reverse 'event-tree' is a particularly useful training template because, in many potential famine situations, the data actually available to the food crisis manager are often only in the form of events mentioned in news flashes or rumours. There are seldom any series of reliable statistics” (Currey, 1984, p. 189) “Understanding causality in terms of a concatenation process allows the manager of a food crisis to take action when he can demonstrate a consistent pattern of events or premonitory signs of an approaching famine” (Currey, 1984, p. 189) ## Others Takes #### @cutler_1988 > famine is a concatenation process caused by a severe shock to the economy which in turn leads to a series of socio-economic adjustments by the affected population. If the economic shock is sufficiently pronounced and prolonged, then the socio-economic adjustments fail for vulnerable sections of the population. Unless the State intervenes to prevent mass migration and mass starvation, famine ensues. [@cutler_1988, p. 440] #### @watts_1991 #### @watts.bohle_1993 Again buidling from critique of Sen (and Dreze), @watts.bohle_1993 developed entitlements, empowerments, and political economy into *space of vulnerability*. Vulnerability: exposure, capacity, and potentiality . In a narrow sense this is about individual command over basic necessities; in a wider sense it should identify the totality of individual rights and social entitlements. And in a still broader sense it should also speak to the structural properties of the political economy itself. ### @blaikie.etal_2014 > Then > > Therefore, the narrative of each event will be an important element in the explanation of particular famines, and at all times it is advisable to maintain a flexible analytical approach. ## scratch notes By tracing the "connections between abstract processes (structures), spaces of vulnerability (mechanisms) and actual conditions of famine, hunger and deprivation (events)" By elucidating how structural forces and vulnerabilities connect and become causes and conditions of *events* such as hunger) [per Sayer, 1984, as cited in @watts.bohle_1993]. [per Sayer, 1984, as cited in @watts.bohle_1993]. tracing the "connections between abstract processes (structures), spaces of vulnerability (mechanisms) and actual conditions of famine, hunger and deprivation (events)" The component parts of the system are of course material, but their inter-relationships is where explanatory power is found. @watts.bohle_1993 set concatenations The 'sequence of events' [Alamir, 1981, as cited in @blaikie.etal_2014] that concatenate and trigger crisis are distinct and thus unique explanations are needed for each famine [@blaikie.etal_2014]. ## Examples #### @currey_1984 > The 1974-75 food crisis: in the wake of the independence war, the administration was inexperienced; relations with aid donors were strained; government personnel in rural areas were left unpaid. Annual flooding was severely out of phase with the agricultural calendar in both 1973 and 1974. The dumping of sterile sand and the ponding of flood waters on the fields lessened the need for agricultural labour. The Government's initial response was minimal amidst widespread speculation, hoarding and smuggling by certain people. [@currey_1984, p. 187] > The 1978-79 food crisis: population numbers had grown beyond previously estimated needs for stocks of food. The worst drought in Rangpur District's meteorological history affected internal production, particularly in the northern region. Anxiety arose after difficulties with food aid negotiations. The Government released large amounts of food stocks (already low) to urban elites because of an impending election. The cash crop, jute, was poor in quality and gave little remuneration to poorer groups so that they were then unable to purchase back supplies of rice for subsistence. [@currey_1984, p. 187] #### @cutler_1988 on the Ethiopian famine of 1983-84 > following the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie a Marxist-Leninist inspired military government pursued a relentless war against Eritrean seperatists and regional dissidents. This necessitated large arms imports from its strategic ally, the USSR, thereby alienating the largest potential food donors and minimising the amount of foreign exchange available for developing agriculture and for purchasing food imports. The agricultural base was already fragile through centuries of over-exploitation caused by a peasantry which had itself been overexploited by feudal landlords. A devastating drought which persisted for as long-as ten years in some areas was therefore allowed to develop unchecked. Grain prices rocketed and livestock prices fell. The employment available to the poor and landless sections of the peasantry as an alternative source of income was reduced by government policy and crop failures both in Ethiopia and Sudan. Warfare in the countryside made it impossible for agency officials to assess properly the scale of the disaster, and annual appeals for food aid were ignored by Western donors who were unwilling to sustain a hostile regime. [@cutler_1988, p. 48-49] ## Hawaii COVID-19 #### parts to try and include: > In a narrow sense this is about ==individual command over basic necessities==; in a wider sense it should ==identify the totality of individual rights and social entitlements==. And in a still broader sense it should also ==speak to the structural properties of the political economy== itself. [@watts.bohle_1993, p. 118] - Structural properties of political economy - totality of entitlements and rights - individual command over necessities #### explains - Facets: - Political - Production - Distribution - Employment - Credit - Storage - Consumption - Relief ### drafts [a timeline](https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020) Responding to a global pandemic, public health measures Person to person transmission of the COVID-19 coronavirus prompts a cascade of global (Jan 31), national (Feb 3), state (Mar 4), and county (Mar 4) emergency declarations. Public health policy responses limiting international and interstate travel effectively halt the tourism industry in the islands. Decades of growth in visitors established tourism as Hawaii's primary income and entrenched tourism as a key part of other major industries (e.g., retail, transportation, entertainment, accommodation, food services). Lack of clientele and stay-at-home orders led to mass unemployment. The real estate and rental and leasing sector (20.3%), accommodation and food services (9.1%), and retail trade (6.4%). Retail, Transportation, entertainment, accommodation, food services **The 2020-2023 food crisis: COVID-19 pandemic public health responses halted international and inter-state tourism, Hawaii's primary income, resulting in mass unemployment. Overwhelmed social safety net programs are unable to provide sufficient or timely fiscal relief. strained the understaffed and technologically outdated primary social safety net. and outdated social safety net programs were delayed in distributing unemployment support that for many was insufficient. strained relations: visitor industry consolidation in state economy (need a Stat XXXXX) jobs in tourism - COVID-19 pandemic, government measures adopted to mitigate risk from the pandemic impacted economic functioning of key industries (i.e, tourism, ..., BONHAM?). Loss of livelihoods - Social safety net programs were overwhelmed and delayed in distributing support that for many was insufficient - delayed and insufficient social safety nets ______ The Hawaii 2020-2023 food crisis: COVID-19 pandemic public health responses halted international and inter-state tourism, Hawaii's primary income, resulting in mass unemployment. Food assistance is not currently sufficient to meet the needs of all unemployed residents. the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has drastically increased the cost of food and fundamental necessities, leaving some families unable to afford them. The state government has been providing emergency food assistance to those in need through a partnership with the Hawaii Foodbank. COVID-19 pandemic public health responses halted international and inter-state tourism, Hawaii's primary income, resulting in mass unemployment. Overwhelmed social safety net programs are unable to provide sufficient or timely fiscal relief.