## Chapter 1 [[1. Introduction|Introduction]] & [[2. Literature Review|Literature Review]] ### [[1. Introduction#Whither Food Systems |Introductory Narrative: Whither Food Systems]] *Drive*: Exploring shifts in local food systems risk as a result of global economic integration, and exploring the operating space for reducing vulnerability while participating in global markets. ### [[1. Introduction#Research Context|Research Context]] (greatly expanded in Chapter 2) ### [[1. Introduction#Theoretical Framing and Themes|Theoretical Framing and Themes]] (Literature Review) - Value of learning from disaster history [@schenk_2015] in island contexts [@walshe.foley_2021] - Agrarian Change [@bernstein_1977; @kautsky_1988; @chayanov_1986] - Food Regimes [@friedmann.mcmichael_1989; etc] - Risk as process and risk transference [@kelman.etal_2016; @etkin_1999] The two primary theories engaged in these investigations are global food regimes theory and resilience theory, pursued through the lenses of agrarian change, political ecology, and disaster management. From a grander perspective the operative approach taken can be cast as one of political agroecology. A motivation for this research being to understand the operating space for local food systems transformation within the structures of global food and capitalism. Through investigating food crises disrupting the trend of increasing import dependence in the Hawaii an opening is exposed that affords a glance into food system alternatives %%(subalterns?)%% in the islands. As a political agroecolgy, and borrowing from @anderson.etal_2021, this research thus engages "how governance, power and control define the choices and agency of farmers and other actors in the food system" [[email protected]_2021, p. 24]. This ...... The first working question situates Hawaii's agrofood system historically, and so doing explores themes of agrarian change, food regimes, consolidation in the food system, and risk. The second working question examines crises reshaping of power dynamics within the food system, exploring themes of hazards, food governance, and disaster management. The third working question collates how and what changed when resilience mattered, exploring resilience, localization, and networks of social and political actions to sustain function. These and other key themes will be expanded upon in Chapter [[2. Literature Review]]. ### Research Questions & Methods of Inquiry - I will make my points based on the analysis of historical data on agrarian change and food regimes, phenology of food crises, autoethnography and social network analysis in COVID-19 emergency response, and case studies of new agribusiness investments. I will also draw on the literature and theories in the field to support my argument. - The point I want to make is to explore how shifts in global patterns of capital accumulation through agriculture (food regimes) restructures regional agrofood systems to produce different vulnerabilities and risk, with a focus on Hawaii's complex relationship with imported foods. ==An angle is to investigate periods of food crises and the patterns of response to demonstrate self-sufficiency pursued during emergencies but import rates trend back towards the norm when the emergencies subside %% FIX THIS%%==. ### Importance & Research Audience - My readers are likely to be scholars interested in global food regimes theory, resilience theory, and agrofood systems planning and disaster management. They would already have a basic understanding of these theories and would expect me to discuss the case study of Hawaii in detail. I will to explain the specific context of Hawaii's agrofood system and its relationship with global food and capitalism. - establish the **warrant** and rationale for the research - Claim the centrality of the problem: how does global economic integration shift risk rash of new investments, high rates of food insecurity, climate change, etc. - 1P version: Hawaii's food system faces heightened risks due to global economic integration, which expands the geography of potential hazards and increases vulnerability. This interconnectedness introduces dependencies on imported goods and exposes the system to global market fluctuations, leading to potential cascading failures. The persistent concern over food security, captured by the phrase "if the ships stop coming," has historically driven efforts to mitigate risk through policy and community action. Climate change exacerbates these risks by threatening agricultural productivity, necessitating proactive risk governance. Understanding and managing these complex risks is crucial for ensuring Hawaii's food security and resilience in an increasingly interconnected world. - why should we care now? risk in Hawaii's food system has long been a popular concern, motivating movements of people, policy, and capital. The narrative of food crisis, "if the ships stop coming" has - Based on your notes, the focus on risk within Hawaii's food system highlights the complexities introduced by global economic integration. As Hawaii's local food system becomes increasingly intertwined with global networks, the geography of potential hazards expands, and the vulnerability to these hazards increases, reshaping the risk landscape. This integration shifts risk by introducing new vulnerabilities and dependencies, such as reliance on imported goods and exposure to global market fluctuations, which can propagate disruptions across disparate geographies. The narrative of food crisis, encapsulated by the phrase "if the ships stop coming," underscores the persistent concern over Hawaii's food security. This concern has historically motivated movements of people, policy, and capital aimed at mitigating risk and enhancing resilience. - The integration with global systems can increase the complexity and potential for cascading failures, where disruptions in one part of the system can lead to widespread impacts. This is particularly relevant in the context of climate change, which poses significant risks to agricultural productivity through shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. The need for systemic risk governance and proactive planning is crucial, as local self-sufficiency does not eliminate risk but rather transfers it to a domain where it can be managed under state control. - The importance of addressing these risks is underscored by the historical context of Hawaii's food system, where disruptions have been met with various adaptation strategies, such as crop diversification and the development of cooperative associations. As the global food system continues to evolve, understanding and managing these risks is essential to ensuring food security and resilience in Hawaii. - Indicate gaps in, and raise questions about, extant literature, policy, and practice - The significance of my work lies in its potential to inform civil society groups and government bodies focused on facilitating the development of robust %%local%% agrofood systems. It could lead to changes in policy or practice that better prepare the archipelago for future food crises. It could also inspire further research into the dynamics of restructuring between scales and the production and management of crises. - **Principal Findings**: Preliminary analysis reveals that "sharegrowers" present a double-edged sword. On one hand, they contribute to local food production and potential to increase self-sufficiency. On the other hand, their market consolidation and relationship to their firms other investments introduce risks such as reduced food system diversity, dependency on a few large players, and the potential for Hawaii's food marketplace to be manipulated - - system-wide disruptions during crises. These risks are significant in a system as isolated and import-dependent as Hawaii’s. - My research contributes a new perspective by focusing on the case study of Hawaii, which is unlikely to sever its national or global relations soon, and ==exploring the operating space for reducing vulnerability while participating in global markets==. This contributes to the broader realm of agrofood systems planning and disaster management by collating the means by which resilience could be managed towards. - Restate research purposes and outline principal findings - Take home message*: ==Global food regimes restructure local food systems, shifting the locus of risks and types of crisis, and thus the resilience strategies in the local system.== ## Chapter 2 [[3. Agrarian Change in Hawaii|Agrarian Change]], [[4. Food Regime & Risk Transitions in Hawaii|Food Regimes, and Risk in Hawaii]] %%(Pumpkin?)%% ^375c32 >[!question] How have global food regimes restructured risk in Hawaii's food system? Applying the panarchy heuristic to narrate cross-scale interactions between nested complex adaptive systems, this chapter delves into the evolution of Hawaii's agrofood system through the framework of global food regimes theory. By employing a comparative historical analysis, the chapter seeks to unravel how global food relations have restructured risk within Hawaii's food system over time. The primary method involves constructing a historical narrative that traces significant transformations, offering an account of changes from the period of western contact to the present day. This narrative is enriched through document analysis and data collection, focusing on the distribution of agricultural holdings, demographic production characteristics, and economic factors such as import and local production volumes. Following from @walker.salt_2012 approach to contextualize a system for resilience analysis, the narrative will explore three scales: the embedding scale of global food regimes, the focal scale of Hawaii's agrofood system, and the embedded scale of household provisioning and entitlements. Cross-scale cascading effects are considered in the narrative, say global forces restructuring local conditions. However, while recognizing that embedded scales also can have influences on those they are embedded within, any such effects will be less emphasized. Such "bottom up" information transfer in social systems, from smaller to larger scales, can be more difficult, and is often lost or degraded in transit [@redman.kinzig_2003], thus cross-scale interactions from the smaller (read: embedded) scale of household provisioning to the focal scale of Hawaii's agrofood system, and from the focal scale to the larger (read: embedding) scale of global food regimes are, again similar to @walker.salt_2012 resilience practice approach, not widely considered in this dissertation. The chapter provides a concise treatment of earlier periods, with increasing detail as it approaches contemporary times, culminating in an introduction to current agrocapital investments that will be expanded upon in [[September 2024 Outline#^ad8c13|a later chapter]]. As a secondary method, pattern matching is applied to determine whether the historical narrative aligns with the processes and timelines proposed by food regime theory. This dual-method approach not only enriches understanding of Hawaii's unique agrofood system development but also contributes to the broader discourse on global food regimes and calls to explore their local manifestations [@jakobsen_2021]. In examining Hawaii's agrofood system through the lens of global food regimes, it becomes crucial to understand how these regimes have not only restructured the system but also shifted and introduced new risks. Utilizing a risk and vulnerability framework provides a comprehensive approach to analyzing these changes. Vulnerability processes, as defined by Kelman et al. [[email protected]_2016], refer to the underlying values, ideas, behaviors, and actions that contribute to characteristics such as fragility, weakness, exposure, and susceptibility. These processes can either perpetuate existing vulnerabilities or offer pathways to mitigate them. In the context of Hawaii, understanding these processes is essential to identifying how historical and contemporary shifts in the agrofood system have influenced its resilience or susceptibility to various risks. Furthermore, the concept of risk transference is pivotal in understanding these dynamics. As identified by Etkin [-@etkin_1999], risk transference can occur temporally, affecting how risks are perceived and managed over time. Additionally, Kelman et al. (2016) highlight that risk can be transferred among different locations, sub-populations, and topics, necessitating a multifaceted approach to assessing vulnerability and resilience. In Hawaii, the restructuring of the agrofood system under successive global food regimes has led to the emergence of new risks and the transference of existing ones. This chapter aims to demonstrate how these processes have unfolded, using these risk and vulnerability concepts to elucidate the shifting landscape of risk within Hawaii's food system. By doing so, it seeks to provide a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between global influences and local vulnerabilities. . Comparative historical analysis 1. Primary Method: historical narrative 1. Document analysis and data collection 2. Construct a historical arc of changes in Hawaii’s food system. 3. Earlier periods will receive shorter treatment, with progressive detail offered through time and culminating with an examination of current agrocapital investment and food planning. Particular interest will be paid to the spatial (i.e., distribution of agricultural parcels), demographic (i.e., production characteristics), and economic (i.e., import and local production volumes) composition of food and agricultural systems to assess the extent to which the case of food in Hawaii aligns with successive global relations in food regimes theory. 2. Secondary Method: Pattern Matching Does the historical narrative align with the processes and timeline of food regime theory? See - @talbot_2015 on Jamaica [[@talbot_2015]] - @liu_2008 on Taiwan [[@liu_2008]] - @oloff_2021, @carro-figueroa_2002, and @collo_1989, on Puerto Rico [[@oloff_2021]] [[@carro-figueroa_2002]] [[@collo_1989]] - @plahe.etal_2013 on Pacific islands [[@plahe.etal_2013]] 1. Theory: food regimes theory 1. See McMichael’s Food Regime for Thought (2016) section on food regime methodology 1. This is the point of the method of ‘incorporated comparison’–which uses diachronic and synchronic analysis of ‘world ordering’, combining secular trends with cyclical dynamics” (McMichael, 2016, p. 661) 2. Pattern matching - within case analysis - Using [[Bernstein's 4 Key Questions of Political Economy]] and @marshall.etal_2021 typology to articulate agrarian change in Hawaii and provide context for later chapters. - Building from @friedmann.mcmichael_1989, use Bernstein's [-@bernstein_2016] fundamental food regime questions and elements - Questions - Where, how and by whom is (what) food produced in the international economy of capitalism? - Where and how is food consumed, and by whom? What types of food? - What are the social and ecological effects of international relations of food production and consumption in different food regimes? - Elements - The international state system; - International divisions of labour and patterns of trade; - ==The ‘rules’ and discursive (ideological) legitimations of different food regimes==; - Relations between agriculture and industry, including technical and environmental change in farming; - Dominant forms of capital and their modalities of accumulation; - Social forces (other than capitals and states); - ==The tensions and contradictions of specific food regimes==; - ==Transitions between food regimes==. - Apply pattern matching as method to explore how regimes align with Hawaii's agrarian change. - Use risk/vulnerability framework(s) to demonstrate how risk shifts, and new risks emerge, with these restructurings - *vulnerability processes* "refers to the values, ideas, behaviours, and actions that have led to characteristics such as fragility, weakness, exposure, and susceptibility and that could perpetuate or absolve these issues" [@kelman.etal_2016] - *risk transference* can occur temporally [@etkin_1999] or "amongst locations, sub-populations, and topics ... making it important to consider multiple challenges and multiple exposures when assessing and addressing vulnerability and resilience." @kelman.etal_2016 - %% Riskscapes by @neisser_2014 outlines how ANT can be useful for risk and disaster management assessment. Also provides a good succinct overview of ANT terms and approaches. - Risk topology attributed to Jahn in @undrr_2019 is interesting, but apparently was never developed (per [[2024-06-27 - Molly Jahn]]) due to the issue of quantifying and naming all the risks not being feasible (despite system framing leading to such a belief) so they pivoted to working criterion and plausibility into scenario planning, %% ## Chapter 3 [[5. History of Food Crisis in Hawaii|Local Foods Through Crisis: A History of Disruptions in Hawaii]] >[!question] How have food crises reshaped Hawaii’s food system? %% See [[Food Crisis in Hawaii- From Chronology to Typology]] KS: instead of quantifying the import/shifts, focus on the patterns of response would like to see range of activities that aim to reduce/respond to vulnerability - self-sufficiency pursuit? COVID - social network and state %% To address _how food crises have reshaped Hawaii’s food system_ I will first compile a chronology of food system disruptions since the 18th century, explore the causality of selected crises, and periodize these findings as a typology to articulate relationships between global regimes, local agrarian change, risk, and crises. Explicit interest will be paid to response approaches and their influence on durable impacts, if any, to Hawaii foodways. Over the past years I have compiled various data on food crises in the islands, with notable collections on famine post 1778, World Wars I and II, and mid- 20th Century maritime strikes. Thus this chapter posits a history of risk through the causality, chronology, and periodization [@mohun_2016] of food crises. %% Integrate [[Risk Analysis through Food Crisis]] ?%% - Narrate a chronology food system disruptions in the islands, akin to Schmitt's [-@schmitt_1969] work on catastrophic mortality in HI, but informed by @mohun_2016 on constructing a history of risk (see [[2024-09-06 - risk readings]]). - Drawing from @currey_1984, build [[Concatenation Process Models]] for selected crises to expand causal analysis. - Based on the causal process models, periodize the timeline into a [[Food Crisis Typology Timeline]] - Explore how the [[Food Crisis Typology Timeline]] aligns food regimes and the path of HI's agrarian change to further contextualize shifts in vulnerability and risk across regimes and crises - Key themes - reorientation of exports - eg Did the food system ‘localize’? - market development - eg How/did economic foci shift during crises - Shifts in governance, entitlement bundles and institution response - What, if any, durable reshaping of food systems occurred? eg Banana Bread, SPAM - What critical transitions occur in the return to imports as a crisis recedes? - Critical approaches to retaining functional capacity in Hawaii's food systems during disruptions - Analysis of strategies such as "Belly of the boat" and "Belly of the visitor" ## Chapter 4 [[5.5 COVID-19 Pandemic in Hawaii Foodways|COVID-19 Pandemic Disruptions & Response]] >[!question] What food system vulnerabilities were exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and what strategies emerged in response? To assess the *food system vulnerabilities exposed by and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic* The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented food crisis in Hawai'i, revealing vulnerabilities in both local and global supply chains and prompting a wide array of responses across sectors. This chapter explores the concatenation of the COVID-induced disruptions to food systems and the various forms of local responses that emerged to address them. A key aspect of this crisis was the simultaneous demonstration of the fragility and resilience of Hawai'i’s heavy reliance on imports and the disruption of exports, primarily tied to the visitor industry, which required a significant reorientation. Drawing from an autoethnographic approach, I will provide an overview of my roles and timelines during this period, incorporating participatory action research as a foundation. This research includes my work as Food Resilience Consultant to the Hawai'i Public Health Institute (HIPHI) and direct support to food access coordinators in each county, who played a pivotal role in navigating equitable response efforts. At the formal level, emergency responses were mobilized through frameworks such as the Emergency Support Function-6 (ESF-6) for mass care, Hawai'i Emergency Management Agency (HI-EMA), and other emergency planning efforts I was involved in. However, the crisis also exposed significant gaps in existing emergency frameworks, which were only partially addressed, such as the long-delayed filling of Honolulu’s County Food Coordinator position and the fragmented development of county emergency feeding plans. Community and network responses emerged as crucial countermeasures, leveraging both pre-existing networks like the Hawai'i Hunger Action Network (HHAN) and the Hawaii Food Hub Hui (HFHH), as well as new or ad-hoc alliances. Organizations like food banks, emergency feeding organizations, and networks like the Kupuna Food Secuirty Coalition (KFSC) stepped up to address critical needs, while participatory research revealed the dynamics of these emergent networks, I will use a temporal social network analysis to trace the growth over time of key relationships. These connections—such as those formed between farms and food banks—raise important questions about sustainability: have these relationships endured, or did they fade as the crisis waned? On the policy front, responses were mixed. Key initiatives such as Da Bux faced funding challenges, even as other legislative actions (Acts 175 and 176 of 2021) sought to address bolster local self-sufficiency. The agility of supply chains was tested, with critical nodes like farm-to-foodbank source diversification becoming a focal point of resilience efforts. As suggested by @hernandez.pedroza-gutierrez_2019, understanding the risk topology of these supply chains is key to improving future responses. The chapter concludes by examining how the COVID-19 food crisis has been narrated locally by various stakeholders—funders, policymakers, planners, farmers, community members, food banks, and networks. What materialized from these discussions? What initiatives have endured, and which have fizzled out? Crucially, how did the return of global markets affect these local responses? This narrative reveals not just a reactive phase to an unprecedented crisis, but also insights into the enduring shifts and vulnerabilities that will shape Hawai'i's food system going forward. - Discuss concatenation of the covid food crisis and exploration of myriad forms of local response - Demonstration of Import & 'export' disruption, reorientation of 'export' from visitor industry - Autoethnography approach: overview of roles and timelines - Participatory action research - Food Resilience Consulting at HIPHI and support of Food access coordinators - Formal emergency responses - ESF-6 Mass Care - HI-EMA - Emergency planning gaps and scaffold - C&C Honolulu Food position filled, finally - County Emergency Feeding Plan(s) - Networks & community responses - Food banks and emergency feeding orgs (HHAN survey, Hawaii Foodbank dashboard, response planning, Pantry survey) - Pre-existing Networks (HHAN, HFHH, ?) - Food hubs - @fardkhales.lincoln_2021 - Emergent Networks (KFSC, HHAN, FACs, HFHH, THFST, etc ) - Development and activities of AgHui - Social Network Analysis and time-series (THFST work) - have any new relationships grown from response? or have the connections (say farm to food bank) waned? - Policy responses - DaBux funding cut.. - 2021 Act 175/176 - Farm to foodbank - Etc - Critical nodes and supply chain agility [@hernandez.pedroza-gutierrez_2019] - farm to food bank source diversification - ADD in bits about functional diversity and response diversity - risk topology? - How has the COVID crisis been narrated locally by funders, planning, policy, farmers, community members, food banks, networks, etc - what materialized from these discussions? what lasted? when did things fizzle? *when did the global return?* > [!warning] Use data to illustrate around the narrative, not as the work that is to be done.. ## Chapter 5 [[4.5 3rd Food Regime - Local Food, Global Capital|Local Food, Global Capital: Third Regime Sharegrowers in 21st Century Hawaii]] ^ad8c13 >[!question] How does food system risk shift as agribusinesses invest in production for local consumption? This chapter explores how food system risks shift as agribusinesses invest in production for local consumption, framing these shifts within the contours of the third food regime. As outlined in earlier chapters, the third food regime is characterized by corporate power, market consolidation, land grabs, and the financialization of agriculture. In this chapter, I expand upon these themes to introduce my concept of **"accumulation through localization."** This concept builds on David Harvey’s notion of accumulation through dispossession, proposing that agribusinesses in Hawai'i have developed a new form of accumulation that subverts and subsumes alternative food network (AFN) narratives. By localizing their operations, these firms manage to push back against the resistance from the second and earlier phases of the third regime, using localization as a strategy for both capital accumulation and market expansion. I will illustrate these dynamics through case studies of prominent actors in Hawai'i’s food system who embody this new mode of accumulation. These *Sharegrowers*—a term I use to describe businesses pursuing accumulation through localization—are reshaping the state's cattle, egg, and vegetable industries. Key examples include **Hawaii Meats** in cattle and meat processing, **Villa Rose** in egg production, and **Mahi Pono** in vegetable farming. Each of these companies serves as a case study for examining how narratives of local food production are being cultivated, how political and market strategies have evolved from pre-COVID to post-COVID eras, and how these businesses leverage policy and government support to achieve their goals. Through this analysis, I will provide a general description of each firm, detailing their ownership structures, development timelines, comparative scales, and market actions. I will also explore the specific government policies and lobbying efforts that have been critical to their success. For instance, **Mahi Pono** has navigated water rights to expand its operations, **Villa Rose** has influenced local egg production standards, and **Hawaii Meats** has used public processing consolidation and local meat inspection policies to consolidate its market presence. This chapter demonstrates how these actors are 'going local' in ways that make their operations palatable to the local market, effectively turning the rhetoric of local food production into a profitable venture. By unpacking the complexities of their narratives and market strategies, I will show how these companies are reshaping Hawai'i’s food system in ways that reveal both the risks and opportunities of this new phase of agribusiness investment. - Introduce (or expand as needed from chapters 1 and 2) third food regime contours of interest, namely: corporate power, market consolidation, land grabs, and financialization. - Introduce my concept of '*accumulation through localization*' as new form of accumulation through dispossession and financialization (a la Harvey) that subverts and subsumes AFN narratives and actions, and offers capital redress to such pushback from earlier phases of the 3rd regime. - Highlight expressions of these facets locally via productive (Mahi Pono, Villa Rose, Hawaii Meats) and performative (Ellison's Sensei, Oprah's OW Farm, Zuckeberg's wagyu cattle, etc) agriculture. - Case studies of *Sharegrowers* (neologism for 'Local Food, Global Capital' businesses) in Hawaii's cattle and meat processing (Hawaii Meats), egg (Villa Rose), and vegetable (Mahi Pono) industries - Analyze and theorize their narrative, political and market strategies in the pre- mid- and post-COVID eras. How are they cultivating narratives, growing favor, and harvesting marketshare? What norms do they benefit from and what nuances do they elide? How has policy been a harrow in their efforts? - For each, outline early and recent (pre-existing) market structure of their food item - Provide General Description of each Firm, Ownership, Development Timeline, comparative Scale, Intent, Market Actions & Immediate Effects, and COVID Responses - Consider production, market, and social [[2024-09-17 discontinuity and scale domains|discontinuity and scale domains]] - Highlight how new actors use government and wield policy (sometime via corporate grassroots lobbying) to address their goals - Mahi Pono with water - Villa Rose with egg standards - Hawaii Meats with public processing consolidation and local meat inspection - The chapter demonstrates how these actors approach 'going local' to make their growing local palatable. ## Chapter 6 [[6. Food Crisis, Change, and Opportunity|Discussion of Implications: Producing New Risk]] >[!question] What are the risk implications of the third regimes restructuring of Hawaii's food system? In the current era, agribusiness consolidation in Hawaii is characterized by accumulation through localization, a shift from the earlier focus on commodity export markets such as sugar and pineapple. This transition reflects broader changes in global food regimes, where the emphasis has moved from large-scale export-oriented industrial agriculture and foods to corporate actors seeking profit through, *inter alia*, reorganization of agrofood chains [@burch.lawrence_2009] and localized production [@lin_2022]. ### Short-Term Benefits & Long-Term Risks of Sharegrowers At first glance, the influx of large agribusiness operations—these "sharegrowers"—may appear to lower Hawaii’s food system risk. A narrow focus on the import-export ratio, might suggest that greater local supply reduces the state's dependence on imports, thereby offering a buffer against supply chain disruptions. This assessment would likely conclude that the presence of these entities strengthens the local market basket by increasing local food production. Further, their economies of scale enable production of goods at higher volumes and lower prices, thereby increasing access to locally produced foods. However, this view neglects to account for the effects of the scale and intent of these operations. These sharegrowers are in many cases orders of magnitude larger than Hawaii's operations in the same industry. This enables their agribusinesses to pursue market share greater than that of all other local producers combined. This pursuit of market power while absent in their local rhetoric, is demonstrated in their design and scale decision. - Use Herfindahl–Hirschman Index to measure the size of firms in relation to the industry they are in and is an indicator of the amount of competition among them. See @deteix.etal_2024 on use, limitations, and future research direction To meet their scale goals requires sharegrowers pursuit of control over market share, and thus necessitates outcompeting and pushing out Hawaii's now smaller players. This narrowing of the market creates a system more vulnerable to future shocks. While Chayanov's theory suggests that smallholder family farmers will persist due to their capacity for self-exploitation, Kautsky’s analysis highlights the precarious position of mid-sized commercial farms. These operations, which have traditionally dominated local production, are now being squeezed primarily by large agribusinesses, rather than smallholders. The consolidation of the market threatens their viability as sharegrowers scale up and dominate market access, pricing, and policy influence. Predatory pricing strategies have already led to recent closures, such as the Peterson egg farm and the shuttering of ranching operations on Kaua'i, are prime examples of how these (now) mid-sized farms are being pushed out of the market. As sharegrowers continue to expand, the local food system becomes increasingly polarized, with large corporate entities controlling the bulk of production. This consolidation not only erodes market diversity but also weakens the system's resilience, as fewer, larger entities hold disproportionate power over supply chains, making the food system more susceptible to disruptions and crises. History shows that these entities often prioritize short-term profitability. When labor costs rise, when it becomes cheaper to source production elsewhere, or when market conditions change—such as a strike or another disruption—these businesses are quick to exit. Those producers who were displaced during the period of consolidation may no longer be able to re-enter the market, leaving Hawaii’s food system more fragile than before. - Provide examples from waves of arrival/departure of commodity export firms (sugar, pine, macnut, etc) The sharegrowers now present to reap Hawaii’s local food can be challenged (and eventually transformed), by broadening the food system goal spectrum from local to include food justice and sovereignty [@bernstein_2016] and engaging the midsize operators now facing extinction. Moreover, there is a risk that these agribusinesses, driven by external trends like the current interest in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investments, may eventually shift their focus away from local food production. If this investment trend fades or no longer serves their broader profit-seeking goals, these corporations could abandon their local operations, leaving Hawaii with a weakened food system and an even greater reliance on imports. In conclusion, while the presence of "sharegrowers" may superficially seem to reduce Hawaii’s food system risk in the short term, their long-term impact could leave the system more vulnerable. Their dominance and the potential for market abandonment create a future where Hawaii’s local food security is dependent on the whims of external, profit-driven forces. The need for a more sustainable, diversified approach to local food production remains critical to mitigating these risks and ensuring a resilient future. - Long-Term Risks of Sharegrowers - @rocha.etal_2018 on cascading regime shifts - @feng.etal_2017 on cascading failure: global regime risk - @merkle.etal_2021 on market consolidation and resilience: local risk from large players - Implications for Future Resilience - Expand [[concluding statement]] - The histories of agrarian change (@kautsky? @marx? SEE COMPS PAPERS) and implications of sharegrowers in Hawaii's agrofood systems futures are explored to demonstrate the immediate and project the expected effects. - Contextualizing Agribusiness Consolidation in Hawaii ### Projecting the Sharegrowers adaptive cycle - Exploitation Pursuit of agricultural holdings opened by the plantation regime rupture - Conservation - Release - Reorganization ## Conclusion - ==Focus on the shifting risks within food systems as they become increasingly integrated into larger, global structures. Hightlight the idea that the tools we use to assess and manage these risks are lagging behind the changes in structure.== - Towards developing [[Resilience Heuristics]] - @menegat_2022 : Given the impredicative nature of the connection between the “release” and the “(re)organization” phases of the adaptive cycle, it is not possible to make predictions on when SESs’ evolution towards sustainability will take place. However, acknowledging the role that current social identities and institutions play is a fundamental step for interpreting the current situation and to start envisioning what sustainable SESs could look like in the future. - Restatement of research questions - **What were your answers to the research questions and how did you arrive at them?** My research was a mixed methods study of comparative historical analysis of agraian change and food regimes; concatenation process modeling and typology development of food crises; autoethnography and network analysis of COVID-19 emergency actors; and case studies of recent agribusiness investments. I found in answer to *How have global food regimes restructured Hawaii's food system?* that the trajectory of agrarian change in Hawaii aligns with regime patterns of global capital accumulation through agriculture; and that with each regime came shifts in the distribution and forms risk. For _How have food crises reshaped Hawaii’s food system?_ I have outlined a phenology of food of food system disruptions in a [[Food Crisis Typology Timeline]] that characterizes how the aforementioned risks manifest and have been responded to. - **What do the findings have to say to the literatures?** My research validates food regime theorizing both historically and in the current regime. My findings further the understanding of third regime restructuring by demonstrating _accumulation through localization_ as a strategy among _sharegrowers_ in Hawaii. Further, these findings demonstrate how novel forms of risk are developed in regional food systems through this accumulation approach. - **What are the implications of this new knowledge?** This research offers a means for policymakers to understand the vulnerabilities embedded in _sharegrower_ investments. This has implications for governance of consolidating forces in local agriculture, and the necessity of policy intervention to support a diversity of scales and forms of production. The disaster research demonstrates the need to bridge between forms of 'export' agriculture and critical emergency feeding systems, including ensuring durable relationships with a diversity of farm scales is part of institutional approaches. This study has highlighted that in Hawaii's complex agricultural landscape the often paired goals of food self-sufficiency and resilience may at times, and in various ways, be at odds. The importance of export goods in emergency response, and the cooptation of local production for shareholder returns being the clearest examples. - **What further research might now be done as a result of your work?** As a result of my research, further study can better elucidate the resilience strategies that navigate the complex landscape of agricultural production that spans scales and intents. As a potential avenue for future research, applying frameworks like Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle (QtAC) [@castell.schrenk_2020] and methods for analyzing cascading regime shifts could offer valuable insights into food system resilience. Angeler et al. [[email protected]_2023] provide quantitative methods for panarchy analysis, while Rocha et al. [@rocha.etal_2018] emphasize the importance of understanding regime shifts and their cascading effects. Future studies could explore how these approaches can be adapted to analyze global food regime shifts and their local impacts, focusing on the interconnectedness and vulnerabilities within food systems. By combining traditional flow-based network analysis with innovative information-based techniques like QtAC, researchers could quantify key system properties such as capital, connectedness, and resilience across multiple scales. This could ultimately provide a more robust understanding of how food systems respond to shocks and evolve over time, offering strategic insights into managing vulnerabilities and enhancing resilience in the face of future disruptions. Additionally, the development of resilience surrogates [@carpenter.etal_2005; @bennett.etal_2005] heuristics would help inform disaster risk reduction policy and programs. - **What are the implications for my own research practice? What did I learn about researching from this study?** ## References